As major proposals to change US international trade policy have come into the discourse, a new public consultation survey by the Program for Public Consultation finds bipartisan majorities of Americans in six swing states as well as nationally, support the US continuing to have low tariffs with other countries on a mutual basis, so long as they abide by agreed-upon rules.
This survey is the eighth in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and nationally, on major policy issues. Unlike traditional polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance. All Americans are invited to go through the same policymaking simulation as the survey sample.
Director of the Program for Public Consultation, Steven Kull, comments, “While Americans do support the tariff increases targeted at China, bipartisan majorities oppose an across-the-board tariff increase. Large bipartisan majorities support the US continuing to be part of the international agreements for low tariffs within a rules-based system.”
International Trade System of Low Tariffs
Since World War II, the US has been actively working to promote international trade through a system in which countries negotiate to lower their tariffs on a mutual basis, provided each country abides by agreed-upon rules. The US has such trade arrangements with almost all countries – through free trade agreements and the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs. As a result, average tariffs globally have decreased from about 22% in the 1940’s to about 2% today.
Bipartisan majorities in all swing states (80-85%) approve of the US working with other countries to continue this system, including majorities of Republicans (73-78%) and Democrats (86-93%). Nationally, 81% approve (Republicans 74%, Democrats 88%).
Across-the-Board Tariffs of 10-20 Percent
Respondents evaluated a proposal to impose tariffs of 10-20 percent on imports from all countries, including arguments that these higher tariffs would: generate substantial government revenue and thus allow for reductions in taxes; and stimulate US manufacturing and lead to better-paying jobs. They also evaluated arguments against, that raising all tariffs would: violate US trade agreements and likely cause the US’ biggest trading partners to retaliate with tariff increases; and raise consumer prices for everyone. While the arguments in favor of raising all tariffs were found convincing by majorities of around two-thirds, including majorities of Democrats and Republicans, the arguments against were found convincing by larger bipartisan majorities of around three-quarters.
Finally, asked which policy they prefer, less than half in all six swing states (28-35%) support the US raising tariffs on imports from all countries to 10-20 percent, including just 34-42% Republicans and 20-34% Democrats. Instead, large majorities prefer the US continuing to have low tariffs on a mutual basis with other countries, provided they abide by agreed-upon rules (64-71%), including majorities of Republicans (57-65%) and Democrats (66-77%). Nationally, 68% prefer continuing the current policy of low tariffs (Republicans 60%, Democrats 77%).
The preference of respondents who say they will vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming election is highly similar to Republicans in general: 55-61% of Trump voters in the swing states prefer the US continuing with the system of mutually low tariffs, as do 58% of Trump voters nationally.
High Tariffs on China
Respondents were informed that in 2018, in response to alleged violations of international trade rules by China, the US started substantially increasing its tariffs on Chinese products to about 20% on average and that China retaliated with similarly high tariffs on the US. Bipartisan majorities in every swing state favor the US continuing to impose such tariffs on Chinese imports (69-78%), including majorities of Republicans (75-78%) and Democrats (67-82%). Nationally, 71% are in favor, with no difference between Republicans (73%) and Democrats (72%).
Labor and Environmental Standards in U.S. Trade Deals
The US in its trade deal negotiations has been increasingly pushing for the inclusion of enforceable labor and environmental standards. Respondents were informed that such standards in trade agreements are meant to ensure that trade partners cannot get a competitive advantage by having significantly lower standards than the US. They also evaluated arguments against, including that the US should not try to impose standards on other countries, and that including too many provisions will slow down trade deals.
Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable labor standards – including a prohibition on child labor and the right of workers to collectively bargain – bipartisan majorities of 81-87% in the swing states are in favor (Republicans 79-85%, Democrats 89-93%). Nationally, 82% are in favor (Republicans 77%, Democrats 90%).
Asked whether the US should actively working to make agreements that include enforceable environmental standards–including that countries abide by the environmental agreements they have signed and do not lower their environmental standards to get a competitive edge – bipartisan majorities of 76-82% in the swing states are in favor (Republicans 70-76%, Democrats 83-89%). Nationally, 78% are in favor (Republicans 72%, Democrats 86%).
About the Survey
The survey was fielded September 9-22, 2024 with 4,675 adults by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, including approximately 600 in each state of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and 1,260 nationally. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, home ownership, and partisan affiliation (nationally and in some states) to match the general adult population. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval for the national sample is +/- 3.1%, and for the state samples it ranges from +/- 4.5 to 4.6%.